EVA069 9/4/21

[cyclops16]

Hi Guys, this is my first post. I have a query. Today (9/4/21) at approx 18.45 EVA069 (B-16709,  B773) flew over my house in Stalybridge from the North heading for LHR. I didn't mind, as I got my scope on it and "bagged" it. It was just strange it popping up on my SBS.  It took a very strange routing going North from Taipei, over Siberia, across Russia and then South down Norway, across the Scottish East coast and down through Cumbria. To me that is a very long way around, just curious, is this normal, as I have never seen an EVA aircraft this far North. Are aircraft now avoiding the Ukraine, Belarus area of Europe as it may well turn into a major shooting war and bristling with anti-aircraft missiles ?

This is its track.


www.radarbox.com/data/flights/BR69

[ian531]

Somebody else noticed the same thing

derbosoft.proboards.com/thread/37239/b16709

Ian

[ian531]

Just having a quick look at Flightradar24, the Ukrainian area does look very empty

Ian

Empty skies over Ukraine by ian531531, on Flickr

[ian531]

This shot shows the empty skies better

Empty skies over Ukraine by ian531531, on Flickr

[viscount]

I've not my globe out, but the route does seem to be an exadurated 'great circle route', where the shortest distance between places takes the route way north of what is a straight line between the two points on a distorted flat piece of paper projection in an Atlas. In much the same way as transatlantic jets from France and Germany can at times route northwards up Britain to Scotland before swinging more westwards, rather than heading straight out over Britanny. Global high level winds, projected turbulence and Geo-politics also play a role in the route decision making process.

[Deleted]

I'd say you were spot on with that, Brian. On the face of it, it does seem odd, but as you say, if you have a globe it is much easier to understand. When I worked in Corporate Jets, we used to have a large globe in the office, similar to those which are used as drinks holders, though unfortunately this one was solid. There was a string attached to the top and a measuring tape. By this means we were able to fairly accurately predict great circle distances when we were planning demo tours. This may seem ridiculous at first, but there were no Google maps or anything else of that calibre readily available. This, together with Jeppesen planning charts, would give us a very accurate idea of routings and flight times.

If northbynorthwest sees this, he'll be able to put a lot more flesh on the bones of this story.

[cyclops16]

Thanks for the replies guys. I will have to keep an eye out on this as much as I can, especially as it may be a Great Circle routing ( To be honest I didn't think of that, as I don't have a Globe) and/or maybe to avoid political tensions in Ukraine as we are coming into the war fighting "season" of spring/summer and also other current tensions further afield between Taiwan and China.

[northbynorthwest]

Apr 10, 2021 10:30:49 GMT 1 @garstonboy said:

If northbynorthwest sees this, he'll be able to put a lot more flesh on the bones of this story.

Having been retired now for around a year, I do feel somewhat out of the loop but will certainly add my 10 cents. I used to work with a very good flight planning system called Global Flight Planning, which Delta Air Lines developed, where I could plot the routings on the globe.  It gave me the ability to plan all my flights using great circle routings as well as routings along airways or tracks, so I could compare any scenario.

As Brian says so well in his last sentence, "Global high level winds, projected turbulence and Geo-politics also play a role in the route decision making process." This Eva Air routing could be due to any of these reasons, but I would suspect it was most likely due to enroute airspace closures - either within China or in the Ukraine / Belarus area, or quite possibly both. With the current elevated saber rattling by Mainland China, I could certainly see this being a likely issue.

Taiwanese airlines have only been allowed access to very limited Chinese airspace, mainly to the west towards Europe. I seem to remember that they had no access to routings over Shanghai and Beijing. So, this flight's routing avoids Chinese airspace, routing over Korea, skirting east of North Korea and entering Russian airspace around Vladivostock. The flight would have to be filed via airways through Russian airspace, so the routings would have been somewhat close to great circle from Vladivostock onwards, but would have been forced to zig-zag its way across the Russian airspace.  Incidentally, the Russians must have loved this, as they charge an arm and a leg for overflight charges.

Compared to that, I used to plan LAX-Sydney and vice-versa flights, which were probably the closest to pure great circle routings, where you can plan a route that is totally random from a fix entering Oakland Oceanic airspace offshore of LAX all the way to a fix about 30 minutes out from Sydney. You could plan to cross oceanic tracks and airways with no restrictions, just showing the position every 5 degrees of longitude on the filed ICAO fight plan; you can even reanalyze the flight enroute with updated winds, change the routing based on fuel burn or enroute weather, and send the amended routing to both the crew and to ATC  - things have come a long way in a short time.  Sorry for geeking out here, but I think you will find it interesting.

[plug]

Track of Rivet Joint flight to Ukraine area today. I thought Waddington was usually closed on Sundays.

Rivet Joint track by Dan Sprague, on Flickr

[Deleted]

Very interesting track. With what is happening on the Ukraine border, no surprises about what that's been doing.